Hey Guys it’s def been a while since I have made an article for picks. My record so far since I have started hasn’t been too shabby. I average about 7 and 4. I’m gonna be honest, I hate doing picks. Well not so much actually picking but having to do an objective and smart analysis on each of my decisions. So I say f*** it, I am gonna have fun with this. So without further ado here are my picks.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Kevin Burns v.s TJ Grant – Grant wins. Burns only notable win is over Rumble Johnson and that was just because Johnson was no match for Burns’ black belt in eye-pokery.

Grant def. Burns by unanimous decision

DaMarques Johnson v.s Edgar Garcia – Look I didn’t even watch the 9th season of TUF so I have no clue how good Johnson is. I know Garcia is decent. Garcia only had one loss and it was controversial. I’ll give Garcia the win, he has better stand up. He’ll knock out Johnson.

Garcia def. Johnson via KO at 3:00 of round 2

Rousimar Palhares v.s Lucio Linhares – Palhares is a black belt in BJJ and has won against Jeremy Horn. However Linhares is a SECOND degree black belt and is 6″ taller than him. It’s a close call but i give it to Linhares because like every sappy love song tells us 2 is better than 1.

Linhares def. Palhares via submission (armbar) at 4:00 of round 1

Johnny Hendricks v.s Ricardo Funch – Now this is an interesting match. Both guys undefeated and have majority wins by KO or TKO. I’m thinking slugfest. I’ll give the edge to Hendricks, dude beat Amir Sadollah.

Hendricks def. Funch via TKO (punches) at 2:30 of round 2

Matt Wiman v.s Shane Nelson – Two words. Snoooooze Fest.

Nelson def. Wiman by unanimous decision

Alan Belcher v.s Wilson Gouveia – Should be a great match. Both got BJJ skills. I’m gonna go with Belcher. The only reason why he lost his last match was because he was distracted by sexyama’s good looks.

Belcher def. Gouveia via submission (guillotine choke) at 3:30 of round 1

MAIN CARD

Paul Beuntello v.s Stefan Struve – very large man means very large problems for Beuntello.

Struve def. Beuntello via TKO (kicks) at 2:00 of round 2

Kenny Florian v.s Clay Guida – Ken Flo. Sorry Clay.

Florian def. Guida by submission (RNC) at 3:00 of round 3

Jon Fitch v.s Mike Pierce – Mike dude, I admire you stepping up, no joke. But you have no clue who you’re going up against.

Fitch def. Pierce by unanimous decision

Frank Mir v.s Chieck Kongo – Kongo gets the upset. How do I know? Cause Mir won’t shut up. That means he’s scared. Mir is the next Arlovski.

Kongo def. Mir via KO at 1:30 of round 2

BJ Penn v.s Diego Sanchez – Sanchez’s insanity is not enough to counter BJ’s skills. So will BJ win? YES! YES! YES!

Penn def. Sanchez via submission (RNC) at 3:00 of round 2

Ok time for the good stuff, picks for UFC 103. There are a lot of good fights on this card so let’s jump right in.

PRELIMINARY CARD:

Efrain Escudero v.s Cole Miller – This has the potential to be a very solid fight. We have the ultimate fighter 8 winner going up against a solid UFC fighter. Miller who is 4-1 in the UFC holds recent wins over Jorge Gurgel and Junie Browning with submission wins. Miller is good at submissions but he also hasn’t faced difficult challenges. His biggest challenge was Jeremy Stephens and he lost that fight. Escudero on the other hand is still undefeated in his MMA career and has shown great talent in the ultimate fighter tournament. I think Escudero takes this one.

Escudero def. Miller by unanimous decision

Andrew McFedries v.s Tomasz Drawl – McFedries has made a solid name for himself in the UFC with a 4-4 record. However, when we look at his losses, they are all to very difficult middleweights such as Mark Kampmann, Patrick Cote, and Thales Leites. McFedries is for sure in that sort of gatekeeper area where lesser fighters are easily taken care of but better fighters just can’t be taken down. Drawl meanwhile is 2-1 in the UFC but has no notable wins. Both fighters are able to finish fights early, so this one is really tough. I give the edge to the veteran.

McFedries def. Drawl by TKO at 2:00 of the second round

Jim Miller v.s Steve Lopez – While miller spouts a 3-1 record in the UFC his only notable win is against Mac Danzig and that’s not really saying much given that Danzig sucks now. However, he did have a solid match against Gray Maynard going the distance for all 3 rounds. Given that i know nothing about Lopez i’m gonna play it safe and give Miller the win.

Miller def. Lopez by unanimous decision

Rafaello Oliveira v.s Nick Lentz – Oliveira will be making his UFC debut at UFC 103 strolling in with a good record of 10 wins and only one loss. Nick Lentz also making his debut will be spouting a much longer record of 20 wins and 3 losses. Both these fighters are ground specialists so it’s obvious that this will be going to the ground and will most likely stay there for a good 95% of the match. Given the defense both of these guys have I can’t see a submission getting sneaked on. Therefore I’ll give the edge to the veteran to hold it out for a decision win.

Lentz def. Oliveira by split decision

Rick Story v.s Brian Foster – Though Story has solid wrestling skills he does not have the ability to finish fights and get the job done. Given the fact that he is taking the spot short notice adds to the edge that Foster will be getting. Foster who will be making his debut is a freestyle fighter with a MMA record of 15-3, has the ability to finsih off Story. Foster has never been to a decision and most of his wins are in the first round. I think Foster is going to make this one quick and painless for Story.

Foster def. Story by KO 1:30 of the first round

Elliot Marshall v.s Jason Brilz – I’m liking Elliot Marshall for this fight. He’s a very solid fighter and is currently 2-0 in the UFC with a big win over TUF favorite Vinny Magalhaes. Marshall has really good brazilian ju jit-su and though Brilz is a very solid wrestler and has good defense, I think Marshall’s well rounded status to win on the ground or standing gives him the edge in this fight.

Marshall def. Brilz by TKO (strikes) at 3:00 of the third round

Vladimir Matyushenko v.s Igor Pokrajac – Who the hell are these guys?

Matyushenko def Pokrajac by unanimous decision

Rob Emerson v.s Rafael dos Anjos – Quite personally I don’t think either of these guys is very good. Emerson hasn’t won against anyone notable and Anjos has two losses in a row to decent tiered fighters. I’ll give them edge to Emerson, at least he was able to KO Gray Maynard even though it was a double KO.

Emerson def. Anjos by KO at 2:30 of the second round

MAIN CARD:

Tyson Griffin v.s Hermes Franca – Griffin who has a current record of 6-2 in the UFC is looking good in this fight. He holds a big win over Clay Guida and his only 2 loses in the UFC were against lightweight notables Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar. Hermes Franca is looking just as good with a UFC record of 4-2 with his 2 losses being to the same exact people that Griffin lost to. This fight is going to go to the ground and with a black belt in BJJ I think Franca will be able to pull off a submission win.

Franca def. Griffin by submission (armbar) at 3:30 of the third round

Josh Koscheck v.s Frank Trigg – The 6 year younger Koscheck will most likely have the edge in this fight. His wrestling will be able to neutralize Trigg’s boxing which I think Frank likes more than his ground game. In the end there won’t be anything flashy in this fight, both these fighters like to drag it out and go all the way. The name of the game will be to play it safe and just chip away at each other. That being said I think Koscheck will be able to do it better than Trigg can.

Koscheck def. Trigg by unanimous decision

Martin Kampmann v.s Paul Daley – Daley simply just doesn’t have enough time to get himself ready to take on Kampmann. If this fight was still against Swick than there would be something to talk about, but quite frankly Daley has his work cut out for him and unfortunately I don’t think he’ll be able to pull it off.

Kampmann def. Daley by submission (guillotine choke) at 4:00 of the second round

Cro Cop v.s Junior Dos Santos – While Cro Cop has been unable to show his greatness from the days of old I still think he is one of the best in the game. However Dos Santos is going to be quite a challenge for the legend. This guy has an 8-1 record and hs never been past the first round. That’s pretty impressive. Given his 10 year youth edge on Cro Cop he for sure has a good hand at winning this. It’s tough however to just ignore Cro Cop’s insane kicking ability. I’m going with the legend.

Cro Cop def. Dos Santos by KO (head kick) at 1:30 of the first round

Rich Franklin v.s Vitor Belfort – Old Vitor Belfort for sure has the ability to strike fear in most people’s hearts by winning against fighters like Couture, Abbot, and Hearing. However new Vitor was unable to take out fighters like Hendo, Liddell, and Ortiz. These are all fighters that I would throw Franklin in there as well. If Vitor is at the top of his game then I can see him winning this match, but I think his hiatus from UFC talent will cost him. As long as old school Vitor doesn’t show up then Franklin has this one in the bag.

Franklin def. Belfort by unanimous decision

What’s up peeps, I am back with my picks for the fight night coming up on Wednesday, so let’s jump right into it

PRELIMINARY CARD:

Steve Cantwell v.s Brian Stann – Cantwell currently 1-1 in the UFC will be facing in a rematch against a former WEC fellow Brian Stann. The last time these two met Cantwell took down Stan with punches in the second round. Stann will be looking for revenge in this match but I don’t think it’s in the cards for him. With two losses in a row one being to Cantwell and another to the submission specialist Krzysztof Soszynski I don’t think Stann has the confidence (or skill) to take out a more talented Cantwell. But I will give Stann a longer time to stay alive than before.

Cantwell def. Stann by TKO (punches) 3:00 of the third round

Chris Wilson v.s Mike Pyle – Both Wilson and Pyle are veterans of MMA both being in their early thirties and having at least 20 fights under their belts. Wilson being 1-2 in the UFC and Pyle being 0-1 in the UFC presents this match as pretty much even. The deciding factor comes down to the fact that Pyle has been able to finish matches and Wilson has not. A good portion of Wilson’s wins and losses have been from decisions. He just isn’t the type of fighter to get things done in the octagon and Pyle is a fighter who can get the quick finish. I am going with Pyle.

Pyle def. Wilson by submission (triangle choke) 1:50 of the second round

C.B Dollaway v.s Jay Silva – Much isn’t known about Silva except that he is a newcomer to the UFC. C.B will be coming off his recent loss to Tom Lawlor at UFC 100 by getting caught in a choke. I have C.B winning this fight all the way. He has a lot of talent and I think the only thing that stops C.B from being a dominant factor in the UFC is himself. If he can stay away from making the stupid mistakes that he sometimes falls into, I am more than confident he can make a big splash in the middleweight division.

Dollaway def. Silva by TKO (ref stoppage) 3:00 of the first round

Sam Stout v.s Phillipe Nover – Sam Stout is quite an enigma. He is currently 3-4 in the UFC and does have a notable win over Spencer Fisher to which he lost in a rematch. One of his other losses also happens to be against one of the best lightweights currently Kenny Florian. Given that it gets treated more like a 2-2 record. Nover I think has a ton of talent and I def think he has what it takes to win this match. Though he is 0-2 in the UFC one of his losses was to Efriann Escudero in the finale. I know that this is a big upset pick, but I love Nover’s fire and drive. I am gonna go with him over stout.

Nover def. Stout by unanimous decision

Jeremy Stephens v.s Justin Buchholz – Stephens is another fighter that is in a very similar situation to Sam Stout. 3-4 in the UFC just kind of floating around with his losses being to very tough opponents like Spencer Fisher and Joe Lauzon. Buchholz is also in the mix with a 1-2 record in the UFC and he’s looking to make a move. However, he has very weak submission defense and I think Jeremy is going to have his way with him on this one.

Stephens def. Buchholz by submission (rear naked choke) at 2:00 of the second round

Brock Larson v.s Mike Pierce – Just in case you were confused, that’s Larson not Lesnar. Now that we have that cleared up let’s move on. This should be a good fight Brock is currently undefeated in the UFC and will be taking on Pierce in his UFC debut. Though i think Pierce is a solid fighter I also think he is outmatched here against a more experienced Laron. However I do think Pierce will be able to go the distance.

Larson def. Pierce by unanimous decision

Ryan Jensen v.s Steve Steinbess – ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ what? huh? ohhhh uhhhh Steinbess but only barely, he has a decent offense and Jensen has no defense…ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

Steinbess def. Jensen by split decision

MAIN CARD:

Nate Quarry v.s Tim Credeur – Now THIS is what I’m talking about. These guys are so evenly matched I don’t know who to pick. Tim has great ground game and he can like submit you in 5 different ways. But Nate has awesome defense on both the ground and standing. Nate also has a good striking game to go along with his solid defense. This will be a real challenge for Tim, Nate KNOWS how to finish fights and he doesn’t like going to decision. Sorry Tim, but I think Nate will be handing you your first UFC loss.

Quarry def Credeur by TKO (punches) at 3:30 of the third round

Carlos Condit v.s Jake Ellenberger – This will be another great fight, here we have two young fighters both fresh to the UFC with lots of fights under their belts. We have Jake who is a wrestler and Condit who is a thai boxer. A great clash of styles. This match will def go the distance. The deciding factor will come down to who can control the ground game, and sadly for Condit that is where he is weak. If Ellenberger can take it to the ground which i think he will he can take this one away from Condit.

Ellenberger def. Condit by unanimous decision

Gray Maynard v.s Roger Huerta – yea ummmmm this match is so even it’s pretty much 50/50 either way, I’m just gonna go ahead an flip a coin. heads Maynard and tails Huerta. (FLIP)… It’s heads, Maynard.

Maynard def. Huerta by unanimous decision

Nate Diaz v.s Melvin Guillard – Diaz by submission…duuhhhhhhhhhhh

Diaz def. Guillard by submission (triangle choke) at 2:30 of the second round

]]> http://ckfighter.unfilteredmma.com/2009/09/11/ufc-fight-night-diaz-v-s-guillard-picks/feed/ 0 http://ckfighter.unfilteredmma.com/2009/08/23/ufc-102-picks-and-analysis/ http://ckfighter.unfilteredmma.com/2009/08/23/ufc-102-picks-and-analysis/#comments Mon, 24 Aug 2009 03:45:50 +0000 ckfighter http://ckfighter.unfilteredmma.com/?p=18 Hey everybody this is my first time doing a full list of picks for a UFC event so here we go let’s kick right into the good stuff

PRELIMINARY CARD

Nick Cantone v.s Mark Munoz – Both fighters are coming off big loses to better opponents. Muno got pwned with a head kick by Hamill and Cantone got submitted by Credeur. Assuming Munoz can keep his guard up better this time, this match appears to be a wash. Munoz doesn’t have the submitting capability and Cantone isn’t the best striker. I’ll give the edge to Munoz.

CK’s Pick: Munoz by unanimous decision

Todd Duffee v.s Tim Hague – Duffee will be making is UFC debut in this fight against Hague who has one fight in the UFC under his belt with a submission win. Duffee has had 4 wins in a row with all of them being knockouts. The more experienced Hague also has some good results but not as flashy as Duffee. I like Duffee’s fire, I’m gonna go with an upset.

CK’s Pick: Duffee TKO (strikes) 2:00 second round

Justin McCully v.s Mike Russow – Russow will also be making his UFC debut in this fight against McCully. Though McCully has 3 fights in the Octagon and is standing on a 2-1 record the results on paper are not stellar. His two wins were decision based and his loss was due to submission. Enter in Russow, he is on a seven fight win streak with none of those wins going the distance. 6 of those 7 are submission victories. Given McCully’s weak submission defense, I am going with Russow.

CK’s Pick: Russow Submission 3:00 first round

Gabriel Gonzaga v.s Chris Tuchscherer – another debut Tuchscherer has def got his work cut out for him. He is facing a solid UFC veteran in Gonzaga and even though Tuchscherer has a solid fight record of 17 and 1 filled with knockouts and submissions, I don’t feel it’s enough to overcome the strength of a much more experienced Gonzaga. I think Gonzaga runs away with this one.

CK’s Pick: Gonzaga KO 1:00 second round

Ed Herman v.s Aaron Simpson – This match will be a close one. Simpson has a 5 fight win streak with a 1-0 record in the UFC. Herman spots a 15-7 record but he’s only 4-4 in the UFC. Herman could win with his wrestling ability, but given Simpson’s affinity to keep things standing and go for the knockout it may not do Herman any good. I give Simpson the edge.

CK’s Pick: Simpson wins by unanimous decision

MAIN CARD

Brandon Vera v.s Krystof Soszynski – This will be a great match. The veteran Vera I would say has his work cut out for him. Soszynski has a 3-0 record in the UFC with and 18-1 record overall. Though Vera sports a 6-3 record in the UFC and has always shown solid performance with is wrestling skills, Soszynski impresses me more and more. Soszynski has improved with every single match showing that he can submit you or knock you out. I’ll give this one to Soszynski.

CK’s Pick: Soszynski by submission 1:30 second round

Nate Marquardt v.s Demian Maia – Nate has his sights set on another fight with Silva and that drive would normally get him teh edge, however he has been put up against a very fierce opponent in Demian Maia. Maia a BJJ blackbelt and is rocking a 5-0 record in the UFC will all of them ending in submission. Nate has only been submitted once in his career. The question is will his defense be able to stand up to Maia’s excellent BJJ skills? Most likely yes, but with Maia controlling most of the match, the round will go all the way ending up in Maia’s favor.

CK’s Pick: Maia by unanimous decsion

Chris Leben v.s Jake Rosholt – Chris Leben may be a freakin nuts fighter all stacked on roids and getting in DUI’s but for God’s sake the man can take a beating. Jake simply doesn’t have the firepower to take out Leben although with his specialty in wrestling he might be able to control the ground game to each out a decision. However I am willing to bet Chris is not going to let it get that far. Chris hasn’t fought in a long time and he is aching to show what he’s got. Assuming Chris can dust off the rust he’ll do just fine against Rosholt.

CK’s Pick: Leben by KO in 3:50 of the first round

Keith Jardine v.s Thiago Silva – As much as I love the dean of mean, this match is just WAY to much for him. Silva has so many weapons at his disposal with a black belt in BJJ and having experience in Muay Thai. Not to mention the only fighter to hand Silva his only loss is our current LHW champion Lyoto Machida. Given Silva’s younger body and more all around skill I am giving this one to him. Sorry Keith, I still Like ya though.

CK’s Pick: Silva by TKO in 2:45 of the second round

Randy Couture v.s Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria – If Randy is allowed to beat Antonio over the head with his walker than maybe he might have a chance. Other than that this one is going to Nogueria. As much as I like couture and as much as he is a living legend, he is just that…a legend. Randy is sad to say going the same route as our good old boy Chuck. Nogueria with a younger body and master skills in BJJ will neutralize Couture’s wrestling. It will go all the way, but Nogueria has this one in the bag.

CK’s Pick: Nogueria by unanimous decision